American Banks for 2010
Also we’ve got over Banking 2.0, it’s not technology
The Emerging Markets will be busy of course with Infrastructure Finance but the global divisions of American Banks are likely to suffer from post pay-stub executive trauma and a general feeling of ‘shoot, why should we ask them any’ additionally. The other business challenges in no small measure include the first budding months of the exit from recession and TARP for most. Citi’s leadership is in doubt esp. with Teresa Dial leaving unsuccessful and needled by the administrations’ review. Wells Fargo has the golden opportunity to build on its decimating the Citi challenge in the West Coast with the Wachovia acquisition working out for it despite the bad debt. It would however be bearing the brunt for credit losses again in 2010. The legal challenges against BofA here may not help either. Obama’s still got his hands full running all these banks and more effective regulation would really help the cause of those in the banks waiting for the change to stabilise as internal processes have had the designed regulations in practice for some time before the alt A movement was signed even.
Recently Moynihan also addressed town hall meetings as foreclosures modified exceeded 4% of the mortgages after a blank ten months. A similar town hall of bankers is now in progress in India hosted by SBI as the dollar continues for a resurgent 2010. Euro trades might not catch on to Indian FX intermediation even after a couple of bankruptcies, you may not be able to tell them apart from the Pound bashing that will ensue after British polls. The paper profits of the US banks are unlikely to calm them internally and even the investors can be a touchy lot despite beating analysts estimates.
Obama is trying to change the US stance on a Tax , just to get back at those who didn’t turn up for his ‘Townhall’
With popular anger building as big banks show profits and pay sizable bonuses while unemployment remains high, the Obama administration has come under pressure at home and abroad to support a financial transactions tax on institutions and to heavily tax their executive compensation.
But the United States, led by the Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, has been opposed, arguing that a transactions tax would simply be passed on to customers and a bonus tax could be easily circumvented.
Harder to understand and predict also will be the hopes of off shored jobs coming back whether it is Obama tricks or new centers in Morocco, Monte Carlo and mid-town America. Banking in any case is happier with the current branch market structure and does not imagine new branches from Chinese competitors or the phantom regulations of the pay czars.
Brian Moynihan and Benmoshe do show however that there are likely more new jobs for everyone by virtue of their own selves being virtual dolls of Greenberg and Kenneth Lewis. Citi is likely to pay second fiddle to Wells Fargo in the market sweepstakes and BofA may follow both if not careful. The other continents are likely to hear from only JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs this year.
Latam may yet continue to gladden Citi and Goldman Sachs as they try to write the new chapter for Banking growth, but JP Morgan is the clear winner. Global banking comments similarily are patched together at advantages.us Random thoughts or the Perfect Storm 2e edition, we’ll decide after Hank Paulson publishes his fictional piece on the raison d’etre of the crisis and the raison d’etat.
Welcome to Advantage Banking and Advantage Infrastructure in the new decade. We don’t think banking ever slimmed down at all! However, Fat Cat bankers are out of the mix. GS however couldn’t save its $44b compensation plan from prying eyes of pension funds yet.