Category Archives: Elections

Another alternative ‘reality’

A wonderful canvas, why late?


D Bank’s new speed of light

Deutsche finally completed Post Bank’s acquisition and Commerzbank and DKB can probably start their consolidation efforts now with a little more pace. I do feel however, that Deutsche’s succession battles and many other public stances have more been a figment of peoples’ imagination than anything else. However, much morre is expected of the German major than selective job cuts. We need our leadership in the banking domain and that of HSBC to convert into tangible market and sector victories for Deutsche Bank. We need the bank targeting markets which need both its quick and stodgy ways and come out as an equal to the J P Morgan and Goldman Sachs it has always coveted. We need them to win in securities processing, keep the house in FX, learn more new things in IFRS and Fixed Income, and drop the real waste rather than selling off their only profitable pieces like the others we know

A well-known crap shooter at a respected journal in the domain, looked up Deutsche Bank for a few notes and commented as well on the silence at Deutsche but I think she loves a little bit of diving in the shallow end as always. I trust the Deutsche Bank machine is ready to send out the message that it is alive and kicking.

Bank rate cut Saturday

RBI is expected to announce a 50 basis point cut in rates tomorrow and no one expects them to go beyond the 50 basis points in repo rate for supporting liquidity enhancement in the markets. However, I expect that in the next one year there will be regular rate cuts in repo and reverse repo rates and to ensure that we are in a better condition next time to effectively compete in size in the global markets and take our share of the responsibility, we will also have SLR cuts of upto 400-500 basis points in this coming year. I hope we do that starting tomorrow itself – never a better time.

In the other battles coming up for end 2008, the two remaining banking stalwarts of the previously state owned ICICI Bank are going to cause much trouble at the bank, with no credentials to lead. The onus of Indian banking’s stab at global leadership is now likely to shift to the state owned SBI for its size. Of course the new look JP Morgan leadership of India is also likely to make suitable comments on this turn at appropriate forums.

And the last battle of all, the general elections of 2009, I still root for the battle bruised and much better coiffured Congressman than the Orange blokes and the other half baked concoctions that dot the landscape. (No wonder Obama got elected so easy in the US, no one seems to have time to build parties anymore, there aren’t any Republicans or Tories left either in the US or the UK)

Please do comment when reading the blog!

Note of Saturday, Dec 6: Finally a “large-ish” repo rate cut of 100 BP with a corresponding reverse repo rate cut of 100 BP was announced today, setting the stage for further cuts in January 2009 and more. However, some commentators continue to focus on additional CRR cuts.

Saturday Dec. 20: Another large rate cut expect as call rates trace the exact amount of the last rate cut and then refused to provide any respite from liquidity. This year will be big for bond funds and even money market options. but don’t be too sure of the diustressed debt available in the market yet.

The hum on the weekend

A bouyant new President starting his Odyssey just rewriting parts of the original Odyssey – I think its brilliant – not just boringly pragmatic – it’s simply amazing that a Richardson can be seen and heard after horse trading Mexicans ( Thats how they call it in the good old Orient) and before applying for Biden’s post next time. It’s great that Summers can’t hold TARP but we need him as Economic adviser and Timothy Geithner and the New York Fed come as a package for the bailout package – no transition required here and you were on the same table as Paulson ( I still think he did an ‘Okay Job’) and it’s greater news tht Hillary is still in the ring. Some nice weekend action and thankfully all before College Football and Sunday Football. I think we are all involved. Tom Dashcle was the best catch judging from the media attention, though I thought Summers would be even weightier, and of course Rahm Emmanuel was the best pick ever.

And the next fun’n’ games for the weekend were from that global follower of John Pierpoint Morgan’s legacy, our very own ever awake and ever advantaged Citi:

It isn’t the buzz really, more like a drone..a pain coming home to roost and Citibank making it clear ( as on November 21, my Saturday) that it does not want to sell Smith Barney. They are however not so clear about selling off their Global Transaction Banking and Cards units. But given you just mucked up your bank over three years, why exactly would I buy it – i am after all not a Bone collector, nor a fair weather sunny side breakfast for some rich Arab, I am a serious buyer who wants something that is worth at least 30 cents or maybe at least 70 cents for every dollar i pay in current earnings(sales) and a lot more down the line. If I am Citi, I have already flogged my profitable pieces and this weekend I am told i still will be doing a deal for my dream at $4 a share – doesn’t cut it at all.

Pandit does not want a deal with Goldman Sachs, no one bought the Citi’s profitmaking companies in India ( the deal with TCS was inked though, and it’s very much on) and the hedge funds need their billions to keep hope alive – which right now is owned by Mr Obama, realy busy weekend!$$

MarketWatch – Video – Obama’s Fiscal-Stimulus Challenge

Vodpod videos no longer available.

No change, no hope: Obama’s Transition Economic Advisory Board, | Willem Buiter’s Maverecon

I intend to take you on a trip through Barack Obama’s Transition Economic Advisory Board.

It members are:

DAVID E. BONIOR, a former Democratic Congressman from Michigan and John Edwards’s campaign manager. Has been active in union advocacy. He is now a professor of labour studies at Wayne State University. He opposes NAFTA and abortion. He has a BA and MA, but I cannot find out in what subject(s). He is 63 years old.

WARREN E. BUFFETT, the billionaire investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway; he has a BS and MS in Economics. He is 78 years old.

ROEL C. CAMPOS, a lawyer and former member of the Securities and Exchange Commission under appointed by Bush Jr. He is 58 or 59 years old.

William H. Daley, a senior executive at JP Morgan Chase, former Commerce Secretary under Clinton and chairman of Al Gore’s presidential campaign. He is a lawyer. He is 60 years old.

via | Willem Buiter’s Maverecon | No change, no hope: Obama’s Transition Economic Advisory Board

Obama-nomics | Video |

via Obama-nomics | Video |

Obama: The economy first | Video |

via Obama: The economy first | Video |